Services PMI(TM) (formerly Non-Manufacturing NMI®) at: 58.1

|Aug 5|magazine63 min read

July 2020 Services ISM® Report On Business®; Business Activity Index at 67.2%; New Orders Index at 67.7%; Employment Index at 42.1%; Supplier Deliveries Index at 55.2%

TEMPE, Ariz., Aug. 5, 2020 /PRNewswire/ -- Economic activity in the Services sector (formally non-manufacturing sector) grew in July for the second month in a row, say the nation's purchasing and supply executives in the latest Services ISM® Report On Business®.

The report was issued today by Anthony Nieves, CPSM, C.P.M., A.P.P., CFPM, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Services Business Survey Committee: "The Services PMI™ registered 58.1 percent, 1 percentage point higher than the June reading of 57.1 percent. This reading represents growth in the services sector for the second straight month after contraction in April and May, preceded by a 122-month period of expansion.

"The Supplier Deliveries Index registered 55.2 percent, down 2.3 percentage points from June's reading of 57.5 percent. Supplier Deliveries is the only ISM® Report On Business® index that is inversed; a reading of above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries, which is typical as the economy improves and customer demand increases. The higher readings for supplier deliveries in the three months prior to June were primarily a product of supply problems related to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. Supplier deliveries are now more closely correlating to the current supply and demand.

"The Prices Index figure of 57.6 percent is 4.8 percentage points lower than the June reading of 62.4 percent, indicating that prices increased in July at a slower rate. According to the Services PMI™, 15 services industries reported growth. The composite index indicated growth for the second consecutive month after two months of contraction. The sector's previous period of contraction was for two months in 2009: November (with a Services PMI™ of 49.5 percent) and December (with a Services PMI™ of 49.7 percent). Respondents remain concerned about the pandemic; however, they are mostly optimistic about business conditions and the economy as businesses continue to reopen. Sentiment varies across industries, as they are impacted differently," says Nieves.

INDUSTRY PERFORMANCE
The 15 services industries reporting growth in July — listed in order — are: Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Health Care & Social Assistance; Retail Trade; Transportation & Warehousing; Wholesale Trade; Educational Services; Construction; Utilities; Public Administration; Finance & Insurance; Management of Companies & Support Services; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Accommodation & Food Services; and Information. The three industries reporting a decrease in July are: Other Services; Mining; and Professional, Scientific & Technical Services.

WHAT RESPONDENTS ARE SAYING

  • "Sales have remained strong in homebuilding. We are experiencing longer lead times for lumber, interior trim components, appliances and light fixtures. Lumber prices are near all-time highs as lumber mills have yet to increase capacity as demand has increased." (Construction)
  • "We're still not certain whether or not the students will be coming back in their full capacity due to COVID-19. This has caused an influx of ordering safety supplies to prepare for the possibility. We have certainly increased our purchasing in the past month or so by a large amount." (Educational Services)
  • "COVID-19 posture continues, with some 95 percent of the company workforce working remotely." (Finance & Insurance)
  • "Surgical services still only scheduling at 50 percent capacity. Raw material shortages worldwide affecting ability to get finished PPE (iso gowns, bouffant caps, shoe covers)." (Health Care & Social Assistance)
  • "Overall positive, but cautious outlook with oil prices stabilizing in the midst of the pandemic spiking again in our region. Our company has begun to put mitigation procedures in place to bring workers back to the office despite the lingering pandemic." (Management of Companies & Support Services)
  • "Some business picking up, but mostly virtual meetings, training and consulting. Time will tell if its profitable. The economic situation is quite dire regionally, so there is no telling if this is a trend or just a short respite. Any business at this point is much appreciated." (Professional, Scientific & Technical Services)
  • "Phased opening of businesses continues at a slow pace. Spending is down. Unemployment is up this year, though down compared to last month. Unemployment last year was 2.9 percent. Last month, it was 19.2 percent. This month, it is 16.2 percent." (Public Administration)
  • "COVID-19 interruptions are changing the way business is done." (Real Estate, Rental & Leasing)
  • "Retail sales have continued to increase month over month, likely due to the general reopening of the economy. Mask mandates have been put in place for almost every market we operate in, causing an increased need for supply of masks for employees and customers." (Retail Trade)
  • "Orders and business activity are back to pre-pandemic levels. Previously stalled projects are starting back up." (Utilities)

ISM® SERVICES SURVEY RESULTS AT A GLANCE

COMPARISON OF ISM® SERVICES AND ISM® MANUFACTURING SURVEYS*

July 2020

Index

 Services PMI

Manufacturing PMI

Series
Index
Jul

Series
Index
Jun

Percent
Point
Change

 

 

Direction

 

Rate of
Change

 

Trend**
(
Months)

Series
Index
Jul

Series
Index
Jun

Percent
Point
Change

Services
PMI

58.1

57.1

+1.0

Growing

Faster

2

54.2

52.6

+1.6

Business Activity/

Production

67.2

66.0

+1.2

Growing

Faster

2

62.1

57.3

+4.8

New Orders

67.7

61.6

+6.1

Growing

Faster

2

61.5

56.4

+5.1

Employment

42.1

43.1

-1.0

Contracting

Faster

5

44.3

42.1

+2.2

Supplier Deliveries

55.2

57.5

-2.3

Slowing

Slower

14

55.8

56.9

-1.1

Inventories

52.0

60.7

-8.7

Growing

Slower

2

47.0

50.5

-3.5

Prices

57.6

62.4

-4.8

Increasing

Slower

4

53.2

51.3

+1.9

Backlog of Orders

55.9

51.9

+4.0

Growing

Faster

2

51.8

45.3

+6.5

New Export Orders

49.3

58.9

-9.6

Contracting

From Growing

1

50.4

47.6

+2.8

Imports

46.3

52.9

-6.6

Contracting

From Growing

1

53.1

48.8

+4.3

Inventory Sentiment

50.0

55.9

-5.9

Unchanged

From Too High

1

N/A

N/A

N/A

Customers' Inventories

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

41.6

44.6

-3.0

Overall Economy

Growing

Faster

2


Services Sector

Growing

Faster

2


Services ISM® Report On Business® data is seasonally adjusted for the Business Activity, New Orders, Prices and Employment indexes. Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® data is seasonally adjusted for New Orders, Production, Employment and Inventories indexes.

**Number of months moving in current direction.

COMMODITIES REPORTED UP/DOWN IN PRICE, AND IN SHORT SUPPLY

Commodities Up in Price
Cleaning Products (5); Construction Contractors; Construction Subcontractors; Diesel Fuel (2); Disinfectants (4); Fuel (2); Hand Sanitizer (5); Lumber Products (3); Medical Supplies (6); Oriented Strand Board (OSB); Personal Protective Equipment (PPE) (6); PPE — Gloves (5); and PPE — Gowns (5).

Commodities Down in Price
No commodities were reported down in price.

Commodities in Short Supply
Bouffant Caps; Disinfectants (5); Disinfectant Wipes (3); Electrical Components; Hand Sanitizer (5); Labor (2); Labor – Construction (2); Labor – Subcontractors (2); N95 Masks (5); Nitrile Gloves (2); Personal Protective Equipment (PPE) (6); PPE — Gloves (4); PPE — Gowns (4); PPE — Masks (5); Sanitary Supplies (4); Shoe Covers (2); Surgical Items; Swabs (3); and Wipes (2).

Note: The number of consecutive months the commodity is listed is indicated after each item.

JULY 2020 SERVICES INDEX SUMMARIES

In July, the Services PMI™ registered 58.1 percent, 1 percentage point higher than June's figure of 57.1 percent. The reading indicates the services sector grew for the second consecutive month after two months of contraction and 122 months of growth before that. A reading above 50 percent indicates the services sector economy is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates the services sector is generally contracting.

A Services PMI™ above 48.5 percent, over time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy. Therefore, the July Services PMI™ indicates expansion for a second straight month following two months of contraction and a preceding period of 128 months of growth. Nieves says, "The past relationship between the Services PMI™ and the overall economy indicates that the Services PMI™ for July (58.1 percent) corresponds to a 3.3-percent increase in real gross domestic product (GDP) on an annualized basis."

SERVICES PMI™ HISTORY

Month

Services PMI™

Month

Services PMI™

Jul 2020

58.1

Jan 2020

55.5

Jun 2020

57.1

Dec 2019

54.9

May 2020

45.4

Nov 2019

53.9

Apr 2020

41.8

Oct 2019

54.4

Mar 2020

52.5

Sep 2019

53.5

Feb 2020

57.3

Aug 2019

56.0

Average for 12 months – 53.4

High – 58.1

Low – 41.8

Business Activity
ISM®'s Business Activity Index registered 67.2 percent in July, an increase of 1.2 percentage points from the June reading of 66 percent. This represents growth for the second consecutive month. Comments from respondents include: "More stores open" and "Most areas have lightened restrictions, and work is being released for completion."

The 14 industries reporting an increase in business activity for the month of July— listed in order — are: Transportation & Warehousing; Retail Trade; Educational Services; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Wholesale Trade; Health Care & Social Assistance; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Public Administration; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Accommodation & Food Services; Construction; Management of Companies & Support Services; Finance & Insurance; and Utilities. The three industries reporting a decrease in business activity for the month of July are: Mining; Other Services; and Information.

Business Activity

%Higher

%Same

%Lower

Index

Jul 2020

42.9

42.6

14.5

67.2

Jun 2020

50.1

31.3

18.6

66.0

May 2020

29.3

27.7

43.0

41.0

Apr 2020

20.9

15.1

64.0

26.0

New Orders
ISM®'s New Orders Index registered 67.7 percent, an increase of 6.1 percentage points from the June reading of 61.6 percent. New orders grew for the second consecutive month after two months of contraction and a preceding period of 128 consecutive months of expansion. Comments from respondents include: "Resumption of elective surgery activity" and "A surge in new orders due to openings of businesses."

The 12 industries reporting growth of new orders in July — listed in order — are: Retail Trade; Health Care & Social Assistance; Wholesale Trade; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Educational Services; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Public Administration; Construction; Management of Companies & Support Services; Transportation & Warehousing; Finance & Insurance; and Utilities. The two industries reporting contraction in July are: Mining; and Professional, Scientific & Technical Services.

New Orders

%Higher

%Same

%Lower

Index

Jul 2020

41.4

45.9

12.6

67.7

Jun 2020

47.3

33.7

19.0

61.6

May 2020

28.1

29.3

42.7

41.9

Apr 2020

26.7

17.4

55.9

32.9

Employment
Employment activity in the services sector contracted in July for the fifth month in a row following 72 consecutive months of growth. ISM®'s Services Employment Index registered 42.1 percent, down 1 percentage point from the June reading of 43.1 percent. Comments from respondents include: "Current freeze on all open positions" and "Lower due to retirements and departures; limited new hiring at this time."

The five industries reporting an increase in employment in July are: Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Retail Trade; Health Care & Social Assistance; and Utilities. The 13 industries that reported a reduction in employment in July — listed in order — are: Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Educational Services; Management of Companies & Support Services; Other Services; Accommodation & Food Services; Transportation & Warehousing; Mining; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Information; Wholesale Trade; Public Administration; Construction; and Finance & Insurance.

Employment

%Higher

%Same

%Lower

Index

Jul 2020

18.2

50.8

31.0

42.1

Jun 2020

16.1

58.8

25.1

43.1

May 2020

6.9

52.1

41.1

31.8

Apr 2020

5.8

47.6

46.6

30.0

Supplier Deliveries
The Supplier Deliveries Index registered 55.2 percent, which is 2.3 percentage points lower than the 57.5 percent reported in June. A reading above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries, while a reading below 50 percent indicates faster deliveries. Comments from respondents include: "Seeing longer lead times due to supply chain disruption" and "Allocations and manufacturer back orders have slowed deliveries."

The 12 industries reporting slower deliveries in July — listed in order — are: Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Health Care & Social Assistance; Mining; Transportation & Warehousing; Educational Services; Accommodation & Food Services; Construction; Management of Companies & Support Services; Wholesale Trade; Information; Finance & Insurance; and Utilities. The four industries reporting faster deliveries in July are: Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Retail Trade; Public Administration; and Professional, Scientific & Technical Services.

Supplier
Deliveries

%Slower

%Same

%Faster

Index

Jul 2020

23.9

62.7

13.5

55.2

Jun 2020

26.2

62.6

11.2

57.5

May 2020

40.6

52.7

6.7

67.0

Apr 2020

58.3

39.9

1.8

78.3

Inventories
The Inventories Index grew for the second consecutive month in July, registering 52 percent, an 8.7-percentage point decrease from the 60.7 percent reported in June. Of the total respondents in July, 38 percent indicated they do not have inventories or do not measure them. Comments from respondents include: "Increased demand for maintenance, repair and operating (MRO) supplies" and "Increased stock for customer-driven activity, and a seasonal increase due to storm season."

The eight industries reporting an increase in inventories in July — listed in order — are: Educational Services; Health Care & Social Assistance; Public Administration; Information; Utilities; Retail Trade; Transportation & Warehousing; and Professional, Scientific & Technical Services. The six industries reporting a decrease in inventories in July — listed in order — are: Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Other Services; Wholesale Trade; and Construction.

Inventories

%Higher

%Same

%Lower

Index

Jul 2020

23.5

57.0

19.5

52.0

Jun 2020

37.7

45.9

16.4

60.7

May 2020

28.9

38.2

32.9

48.0

Apr 2020

29.1

35.6

35.3

46.9

Prices
Prices paid by service organizations for materials and services increased in July, with the index registering 57.6 percent. This is 4.8 percentage points lower than the 62.4 percent reported in June.

The 13 service industries that reported an increase in prices paid during the month of July — listed in order — are: Accommodation & Food Services; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Health Care & Social Assistance; Wholesale Trade; Construction; Utilities; Educational Services; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Finance & Insurance; Information; Public Administration; and Management of Companies & Support Services. The five industries that reported a decrease in prices in July are: Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Mining; Transportation & Warehousing; Retail Trade; and Other Services.

Prices

%Higher

%Same

%Lower

Index

Jul 2020

21.7

72.7

5.6

57.6

Jun 2020

34.6

56.8

8.6

62.4

May 2020

29.6

57.3

13.1

55.6

Apr 2020

31.3

52.3

16.3

55.1

NOTE: Commodities reported as up in price and down in price are listed in the commodities section of this report.

Backlog of Orders
The ISM® Services Backlog of Orders Index grew in July for the second consecutive month. The index registered 55.9 percent; 4 percentage points higher than the 51.9 percent reported in June. Of the total respondents in July, 48 percent indicated they do not measure backlog of orders.

The eight industries reporting an increase in order backlogs in July — listed in order — are: Transportation & Warehousing; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Educational Services; Health Care & Social Assistance; Management of Companies & Support Services; Construction; Mining; and Wholesale Trade. The eight industries that reported a decrease in backlogs in July — listed in order — are: Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Accommodation & Food Services; Other Services; Utilities; Retail Trade; Public Administration; and Professional, Scientific & Technical Services.

Backlog of Orders

%Higher

%Same

%Lower

Index

Jul 2020

28.5

54.9

16.6

55.9

Jun 2020

18.1

67.5

14.4

51.9

May 2020

24.6

43.7

31.7

46.4

Apr 2020

30.1

35.1

34.7

47.7

New Export Orders
Orders and requests for services and other non-manufacturing activities to be provided outside of the U.S. by domestically based companies contracted in July after one month of expansion. The New Export Orders Index registered 49.3 percent in July, which is 9.6 percentage points lower than the 58.9 percent reported in June. Of the total respondents in July, 72 percent indicated they either do not perform, or do not separately measure, orders for work outside of the U.S.

The five industries reporting an increase in new export orders in July are: Transportation & Warehousing; Management of Companies & Support Services; Retail Trade; Wholesale Trade; and Health Care & Social Assistance. The six industries that reported a decrease in exports in July — listed in order — are: Accommodation & Food Services; Other Services; Information; Educational Services; Mining; and Professional, Scientific & Technical Services. Seven industries reported no change in July.

New Export Orders

%Higher

%Same

%Lower

Index

Jul 2020

20.5

57.6

21.9

49.3

Jun 2020

35.8

46.2

18.0

58.9

May 2020

13.5

56.0

30.6

41.5

Apr 2020

18.1

36.4

45.5

36.3

Imports
The Services Imports Index contracted after one month of expansion, as the index registered 46.3 percent in July, 6.6 percentage points lower than June's figure of 52.9 percent. Sixty-three percent of respondents reported that they do not use, or do not track the use of, imported materials.

The three industries reporting an increase in imports for the month of July are: Educational Services; Wholesale Trade; and Health Care & Social Assistance. The eight industries that reported a decrease in imports in July — listed in order — are: Accommodation & Food Services; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Information; Construction; Other Services; Management of Companies & Support Services; Mining; and Professional, Scientific & Technical Services. Seven industries reported no change in July.

Imports

%Higher

%Same

%Lower

Index

Jul 2020

6.2

80.1

13.7

46.3

Jun 2020

17.8

70.2

12.0

52.9

May 2020

16.5

54.3

29.2

43.7

Apr 2020

26.4

45.8

27.8

49.3

Inventory Sentiment
The ISM® Services Inventory Sentiment Index in July registered 50 percent, which is 5.9 percentage points lower than the 55.9 percent reading in June. This indicates that respondents believe their inventories are unchanged.

The six industries reporting sentiment that their inventories were too high in July — listed in order — are: Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Mining; Other Services; Information; Educational Services; and Wholesale Trade. The six industries reporting a feeling that their inventories were too low in July — listed in order — are: Accommodation & Food Services; Finance & Insurance; Public Administration; Utilities; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; and Health Care & Social Assistance. Six industries reported no change in inventory sentiment in July.

Inventory

Sentiment

%Too

High

%About
Right

%Too

Low

Index

Jul 2020

12.2

75.8

12.1

50.0

Jun 2020

26.3

59.2

14.5

55.9

May 2020

24.0

62.2

13.8

55.1

Apr 2020

39.9

45.3

14.8

62.6

About This Report
DO NOT CONFUSE THIS NATIONAL REPORT with the various regional purchasing reports released across the country. The national report's information reflects the entire U.S., while the regional reports contain primarily regional data from their local vicinities. Also, the information in the regional reports is not used in calculating the results of the national report. The information compiled in this report is for the month of July 2020.

The data presented herein is obtained from a survey of supply executives in the services sector based on information they have collected within their respective organizations. ISM® makes no representation, other than that stated within this release, regarding the individual company data collection procedures. The data should be compared to all other economic data sources when used in decision-making.

Data and Method of Presentation
The Services ISM® Report On Business® (formally the Non-Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®) is based on data compiled from purchasing and supply executives nationwide. Membership of the Services Business Survey Committee (formally Non-Manufacturing Business Survey Committee) is diversified by NAICS, based on each industry's contribution to gross domestic product (GDP). The Services Business Survey Committee responses are divided into the following NAICS code categories: Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Mining; Utilities; Construction; Wholesale Trade; Retail Trade; Transportation & Warehousing; Information; Finance & Insurance; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Management of Companies & Support Services; Educational Services; Health Care & Social Assistance; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Accommodation & Food Services; Public Administration; and Other Services (services such as Equipment & Machinery Repairing; Promoting or Administering Religious Activities; Grantmaking; Advocacy; and Providing Dry-Cleaning & Laundry Services, Personal Care Services, Death Care Services, Pet Care Services, Photofinishing Services, Temporary Parking Services, and Dating Services).

Survey responses reflect the change, if any, in the current month compared to the previous month. For each of the indicators measured (Business Activity, New Orders, Backlog of Orders, New Export Orders, Inventory Change, Inventory Sentiment, Imports, Prices, Employment and Supplier Deliveries), this report shows the percentage reporting each response and the diffusion index. Responses represent raw data and are never changed. Data is seasonally adjusted for Business Activity, New Orders, Prices and Employment. All seasonal adjustment factors are subject annually to relatively minor changes when conditions warrant them. The remaining indexes have not indicated significant seasonality.

The Services PMI™ is a composite index based on the diffusion indexes for four of the indicators with equal weights: Business Activity (seasonally adjusted), New Orders (seasonally adjusted), Employment (seasonally adjusted) and Supplier Deliveries. Diffusion indexes have the properties of leading indicators and are convenient summary measures showing the prevailing direction of change and the scope of change. An index reading above 50 percent indicates that the services economy is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates that it is generally declining. Supplier Deliveries is an exception. A Supplier Deliveries Index above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries and below 50 percent indicates faster deliveries.

A Services PMI™ above 48.5 percent, over time, indicates that the overall economy, or gross domestic product (GDP), is generally expanding; below 48.5 percent, it is generally declining. The distance from 50 percent or 48.5 percent is indicative of the strength of the expansion or decline.

The Services ISM® Report On Business® survey is sent out to Services Business Survey Committee respondents the first part of each month. Respondents are asked to ONLY report on U.S. operations for the current month. ISM® receives survey responses throughout most of any given month, with the majority of respondents generally waiting until late in the month to submit responses to give the most accurate picture of current business activity. ISM® then compiles the report for release on the third business day of the following month.

The industries reporting growth, as indicated in the Services ISM® Report On Business® monthly report, are listed in the order of most growth to least growth. For the industries reporting contraction or decreases, those are listed in the order of the highest level of contraction/decrease to the least level of contraction/decrease.

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About Institute for Supply Management®
Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) serves supply management professionals in more than 90 countries. Its 50,000 members around the world manage about US$1 trillion in corporate and government supply chain procurement annually. Founded in 1915 as the first supply management institute in the world, ISM is committed to advancing the practice of supply management to drive value and competitive advantage for its members, contributing to a prosperous and sustainable world. ISM leads the profession through the ISM Report On Business®, its highly regarded certification programs and the ISM Mastery Model®. This report has been issued by the association since 1931, except for a four-year interruption during World War II.

The full text version of the Services ISM® Report On Business® is posted on ISM®'s website at www.ismrob.org on the third business day* of every month after 10:00 a.m. ET.

The next Services ISM® Report On Business® featuring August 2020 data will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET on Thursday, September 3, 2020.

*Unless the New York Stock Exchange is closed.

Contact:      

Kristina Cahill


Report On Business® Analyst


ISM®, ROB/Research Manager


Tempe, Arizona


+1 480.455.5910


Email: [email protected]

 

 

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SOURCE Institute for Supply Management